Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has dismissed the latest protests as the work of ‘vandals’ seeking to ‘please the U.S. president’. He insists the Islamic Republic ‘will not back down’. While unconfirmed reports suggest he may have a contingency plan to flee should security forces falter, a more firmly documented exodus is already underway — not through airports, but through financial channels.
IOD’s analysis of Central Bank data shows that between 2015 and spring 2025, $145 bn left the country via the capital account — equal to 40% of Iran’s total oil revenue over the same period. In spring 2025 alone, the account logged a $9 bn deficit. If that pace continues, this year’s outflows could hit $36 bn — nearly matching Iran’s entire annual oil income. It would be one of the largest capital flights in Iran’s history, unfolding amid the most intense unrest since the 2022 ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ protests.
Officials often blame foreign plots. But the capital account points inward. With Iran’s genuine private sector making up just 15% of foreign trade, the scale of outflows implicates regime-aligned individuals and quasi-state networks as key movers.
The current protest wave began on 27 December 2025, when the dollar breached 145,000 tomans and gold prices surged. Shopkeepers in Tehran’s Alaeddin, Charsou, and other central bazaars shuttered their stores — a gesture that quickly spread to other cities. Clashes followed, with chants denouncing poverty, corruption, and dictatorship.
Some slogans struck deeper. ‘Death to Khamenei’ and ‘Long live the Shah’ rang out in bazaars that once bankrolled the 1979 revolution. As Khamenei faces perhaps the most serious challenge of his 36-year rule, a new generation seems to be re-evaluating the past — not with nostalgia, but with comparison.
The numbers bear it out. In the final years of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s reign, Iran ranked among the world’s 20 largest economies. Under Khamenei, it has slid to 35th — briefly falling to 44th in 2019, its lowest on record. Over nearly four decades, the country has lost not only economic ground, but global stature.
The Islamic Republic still commands its security forces. But if capital flight is any measure, confidence among Iran’s wealth holders is already gone — quietly, steadily, and in hard currency.
The article was published on Iran Open Data