Iran’s Chamber of Commerce has reported an accelerating depletion of raw material inventories across the industrial sector.
According to the report, the Raw Material Inventory Index fell from around 44.5 in July to 39.3 in August 22.
Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the overall economy also fell to 46.9, signaling economic contraction and a further deepening of the recession in the coming months.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a tool used to assess the overall condition of the country’s industries through surveys of purchasing managers. A reading of 50 represents a neutral level, indicating no change. A reading below 50 indicates contraction and economic deterioration, while a reading above 50 indicates expansion and an improvement in economic conditions.
Among the main components of the PMI, raw material inventories recorded the weakest performance in August, falling to their lowest level in four months since the ceasefire.
Among industries, the raw-material inventory index for the petroleum and gas products sector was reported at around 23.3, the lowest reading among all industries. The motor vehicles and related parts sector followed at 28.7, while the rubber and plastics sector recorded 32.4, making them the next two weakest performers.
The Chamber of Commerce has warned that the continued decline in raw material inventories, combined with weakness in other components of the supply chain, could become one of the “most serious constraints on industrial production growth” in the coming months.
| Indicator | Component | Seasonally Adjusted — Jul 2026 | Seasonally Adjusted — Aug 2026 |
| Overall Economy PMI | Main components | 48.6 | 46.9 |
| Output of Goods or Services | Main components | 51.6 | 47.8 |
| New Orders from Customers | Main components | 48.7 | 47.5 |
| Speed of Order Fulfillment | Main components | 47.7 | 48.6 |
| Inventory of Raw Materials or Purchased Inputs | Main components | 44.5 | 39.3 |
| Employment and Labor Utilization | Main components | 47.3 | 47.3 |
| Prices of Raw Materials or Purchased Inputs | Auxiliary components | 85.8 | 87.2 |
| Inventory of Finished Products or Work in Progress | Auxiliary components | 48.7 | 45.2 |
| Exports of Goods or Services | Auxiliary components | 44.1 | 43.5 |
| Prices of Manufactured Products and Services Provided | Auxiliary components | 62.2 | 63.1 |
| Energy Consumption | Auxiliary components | 52.0 | 54.6 |
| Sales of Goods or Services | Auxiliary components | 47.5 | 47.0 |
| Expectations about Economic Activity in the Coming Month | Auxiliary components | 54.4 | 44.4 |
Source: Research Center of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture — August 2026.
According to the report, limited access to foreign currency, difficulties with imports and customs clearance, goods being held at customs, logistical disruptions, and rising procurement costs have put further pressure on inventories of production inputs.
The Chamber of Commerce says that if this trend continues, the risk of reduced production capacity and disruptions or shutdowns at some production lines will increase.
Another section of the report points to runaway inflation, stating that the Raw Material Price Index increased at a faster pace in August compared with the previous month, reaching its highest level in three months.
The Raw Material Price Index surged to 87.2 in August.
The Goods Export Index also fell to 43.5, indicating significant disruptions to the overseas sales of the country’s industrial products.