New tanker-tracking data shows that Iran’s new oil exports have effectively ground to a halt, while crude exports from Arab countries in the region surpassed pre-war levels in the final week of September.
Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler shows that regional crude exports reached their highest level since the war began in late February.
Average crude exports stood at around 16.5 million barrels per day in September, but the seven-day average rose to around 19.5 million barrels per day in the final week of the month, surpassing the pre-war level of approximately 17 million barrels per day.
By contrast, Iran has not loaded any new oil at its terminals since mid-August, while no Iranian oil cargo has crossed the US blockade line since mid-July. Data from tanker-tracking firm TankerTrackers also points to a halt in new Iranian crude shipments.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at Kpler, told Iran International that the halt in loadings has forced Iran to cut oil production to roughly the level required for domestic consumption, around 1.8 million barrels per day—roughly half its pre-war output.
Iran’s oil exports
Kpler data, seen by Iran International, shows that since mid-July, no Iranian oil cargo has crossed the blockade line and travelled through Asian waters toward China.
Iran continued loading oil for several weeks and, by mid-August, had stored around 67 million barrels aboard tankers anchored in its southern waters. But as access to empty tankers became increasingly limited, new loadings also came to a halt.
TankerTrackers data indicates that Iran’s oil terminals were effectively inactive in terms of crude loadings throughout September.
As of last week, around 15 million barrels of Iranian oil remained on the water in Asian waters. Falakshahi said most of those cargoes had already been sold, meaning Iran effectively has no new oil available for delivery to Chinese buyers.
China is the only major buyer of Iranian crude and purchased an average of around 1.5 million barrels per day from the Islamic Republic over the past year.
Iran also exported around 500,000 barrels per day of oil products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) last year to buyers including the UAE, China and other Asian countries. Those flows have also stopped since the start of the naval blockade.
Arab oil exports recover
By contrast, Arab countries in the region have restored much of their oil exports and established alternative routes for transporting crude.
Kpler says their crude exports averaged at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, roughly matching their pre-war average. In the final week of the month, however, exports rose substantially further.
Before the war, nearly 17 million barrels per day of crude and 6.3 million barrels per day of oil products from Iran and Arab countries in the region, including Oman, were shipped to global markets through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea—a combined 23.3 million barrels per day.
In the final week of September, crude exports from these countries reached nearly 19.5 million barrels per day, above the pre-war level. Oil-product exports, however, stood at around 3 million barrels per day, less than half their pre-war level.
Overall, crude and oil-product exports from the region reached more than 22.4 million barrels per day in the final week of September, just 900,000 barrels per day below the pre-war level.
The comparison is particularly striking because Iran accounted for around 2 million barrels per day of crude and oil-product exports before the war. Excluding Iran, exports from Arab countries in the region have therefore risen above their pre-war level, largely offsetting the disappearance of Iranian supplies from the market.
OPEC data shows that the UAE, which left the group in May, increased oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day in August—around 700,000 barrels per day above its pre-war level.
No new data has yet been released on UAE oil production in September. The country has production capacity of close to 5 million barrels per day.
The original article was published on Iran International